It is Eurosceptics who push hardest for a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU largely because they think they would win a popular vote. But the remarkable thing about the ICM poll published yesterday was that 49% want the UK to quit and 40% want the UK to remain a member. Given the endless anti-EU stories churned out by the tabloid press combined with the fact that the EU is currently facing its most serious crisis in its existence, I would have expected the gap to be much wider.
An excellent article , written some months before the AV vote, predicted with confidence that the yes campaign would lose. This was on the basis that those who run referendum campaigns for a living at state level in the USA have two rules about whether a change proposal can be won. The first is that the proposal needs to be getting around 60% or above in polls before the referendum is called. The second is that there needs to be a killer economic argument in favour of the change. On neither of these measures would the eurosceptics win. The ICM poll shows lower support than is necessary. And, my personal opinion is that the economic argument actually plays far more strongly for those who would be arguing in favour of maintaining EU membership when one considers all the trade and jobs that could be lost should we leave the EU.
What I think the eurosceptics get wrong is the belief that the usual anti-european banter that sells papers and stimulates debate in pubs and workplaces across the UK can easily be transformed into a vote against EU membership. My hunch is that when the economic arguments in favour of staying in the EU are widely aired, old-fashioned British pragmatism would win out over the more ephemeral appeal of populist sentiment.
23/1/13 UPDATE: Cameron has just announced an in/out referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. The fact that the referendum will not happen for five years and after a possible renegotiation adds in variables which make it much harder to predict the outcome but I think the points above still bear consideration.
Dog
26th October 2011
You really think Europhiles could win a Yes vote to stay in the EU? Prove it, I dare you! Campaign to hold a referendum and put it to the test. It is not the Eurosceptics who are running away from a vote.
I do not believe that Europhiles could win an in or out referendum at all.
Europhiles would lie about 'end of the world economic catastrophes' if we withdrew from Europe. Exactly as they did in 1991-1992 whenever anyone suggested we should pull out of the ERM and not join the European single currency (called the Ecu at that time). Conversely our economy improved massively after we [withdrew from/were kicked out of] the ERM. The 'uncertainty' of setting our own interest rates to suit our economy did not hurt business confidence or investment at all.
However, the arguments in favour or opposed to the EU at this stage are moot, as the Europhiles have already conceded the argument. They have given up on winning any argument and instead turn to outright despotism in denying the people their say and are dedicated to taking us into a fully Federal EU (whatever nonsense is spoken about renegotiation or repatriation of powers) We cannot repatriate powers unless ALL the other 26 nations allow us to and there is no way that the Parliament in every other EU state will vote to grant the UK preferential terms of membership. This means that the only realistic options for a referendum are all the way in, or all the way out.
The left wing conservative Europhile MP Loiuse Mensch summed it up in her tweet a few days ago. She said that she would never support a referendum she could not win. Which is very much a tacit admission that after 34 years, those people who support a single Federal EU (which since December 2009 is the ONLY alternative to independence now that Lisbon has been ratified) cannot find a winning argument in favour of staying in the EU. That is the same as saying that there is no argument for staying in the EU. For if there was, then they could put it to the people in a referendum.
Now we have this nonsense written saying, "Oh well, we would have won a referendum anyway." NO YOU WOULD NOT!
Given a three way choice of 'all the way out', or 'this far and no further', or 'all the way in', then the biggest group would vote for the middle option. Sadly as argued above, this is not an honest, viable or offered option. Once the Euro-zone countries merge their sovereignty into one nation, they will always be able to out vote us and the political gravity will inevitable drag us further and further into an integrated whole. This is why the only real, honest and genuine options are all the way in, or all the way out.
IF we voted all the way in, I would democratically accept that position. In fact it would shut up all the negative Euro-sceptics and stop us once and for all from moaning on the sidelines, however to achieve that end, we must be given our say.
When the only viable and honest choices are ALL the way in or ALL the way out, then I believe that out would win by a landslide. Just as the NO campaign overwhelmingly won the AV referendum, the OUT campaign would overwhelmingly win an in or out referendum on the EU.
If you doubt it, then put it to the test.
Adam Lent
26th October 2011
Surely the lesson of the last few months is that the economic and political partnerships at the heart of the EU are completely intertwined. You may be certain that withdrawing from the EU or the political aspect of the EU will have no long-term negative economic consequences but my guess is that the British public would be far more circumspect in a popular vote.
James Harvard
26th October 2011
Are you seriously suggesting that other EU countries would want to cut off trade with the UK if we left the EU? That would be madness - it's not exactly as if either the UK or other EU countries economies can afford that sort of nonsense.
Anyway, I believe the UK has a trade deficit with the rest of the EU, so actually the EU economy would have more to lose from reduced trade with the UK than the UK would. But then nobody's arguing for reduced EU-UK trade, so it's purely hypothetical.
James Harvard
26th October 2011
Why would any trade or jobs be lost if Britain left the EU? The issue under discussion is the UK wants to continue participating in a project for political integration, not whether the UK should continue to trade with other countries.
Andre Schlender
26th October 2011
Simple fact is that the EU can live quite comfortably without the UK. Significant sectors of the UK economy however depend on the European market.
UK politicians and citizens should be more than happy with the numerous special deals they have been granted. "Shut up" or "Get out" is my mantra.
Obviously prefer the UK to stay and actually work productively and COLLABORATIVELY on the improvement of the EU for the benefit of all members. And boy, do they need improvement.