Historical Learning for a Peaceful Future

Some think we live in post-historical times with narratives that pay little attention to learning from the past. This year, on the anniversary of the first nuclear bombs being dropped, we might reflect on a brewing conflict which has its roots in history, quite literally.

It is little discussed in the west albeit it has the potential to escalate and alter the balance of world powers. Much of our media focus on international threats focuses on Iran and Russia, with Hong Kong riots also prompting media interest albeit apathy on potential impacts. Beyond these surface stories a seething cauldron of discontent is emerging in the east.

Last month I travelled to East Asia for a peace and reconciliation conference and talks.  Most will know about the North and South Korea conflict, albeit perhaps know less of the complexities of that conflict or the wider picture  in which it sits. The first day of my meetings in South Korea saw Chinese and Russian bombers enter South Korean claimed airspace. It is thought they might have been a flexing of muscles before the arrival of President Trump's National Security Advisor, John Bolton, arrived in South Korea.  The overhead incursion was ushered out by South Korea F15 and F16 fighters reportedly firing 400 rounds and 20 flares.

To add to the complexity, the incident occurred above the Dokodo (Solidarity) / Takeshima (Bamboo) Islands whose territorial sovereignty is currently claimed by both South Korea and Japan.  Before arriving in South Korea  incidents of attacks on the Japanese embassy in Seoul and protesters burning themselves outsides highlighted the tensions.  Regarding the other incursion, Japan were quick to condemn the Russian and Chinese air action but also the actions of the South Korean air force given that Japan lays claim to the islands.  Relations between the two countries have hit a new low in recent times as a result of two issues related to history.  The first relates to the islands themselves and Japanese school textbooks informing students of their rights to the islands.  The second issue relates to a South Korean court decision ordering Japanese companies to compensate so called ‘comport women’-  women in brothels for the Japanese military during World War II.  The issue has seen tension between the two nation rise.

Beyond this China is circling, literally overhead and with claims to maritime sovereignty of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.  Russia is also protecting their rights to the South Kurl/Northern Territories over Japan.  Furthermore, tensions are present in the South China Sea with China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia all with claims, disputes or areas at risk of incursion.  The week of peace discussions in East Asia ended with North Korea launching two short-range ballistic missiles perhaps as a flexing of military muscle against the South’s joint military exercises with America and work on missile defence systems.  Those exercises may occur this week.

So far, the issues have not boiled over with status quo maintained and perhaps Confusion leadership norms of consensus and caution preventing any escalation.  However, there are now calls for an improved internal dispute management mechanism for the Association of South East Asia Nations (ASEAN).  Western leadership models are perhaps not the place to look with various models of ‘Great Man leadership’ providing an approach to leadership and harking back to the colonial era.  A new leadership paradigm focussing on cooperative leadership approaches has been shared in an attempt to establish greater cross border synergy, positive interdependence and accountability on all sides to keep the peace of the region and potentially the world.

On this, the 74th anniversary of atomic bombs dropping on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we know the ultimate price paid in war.  These were not dropped necessarily to defeat an enemy but to prevent Russian control.  As the area boils up, and Russia and China circle, American isolationism is being encouraged by North Korea and might in practice play out.  Cooperative approaches must come to the fore in a world that sees increased isolationism, new nationalism narratives normalising and ‘wicked issues’ at risk of escalating towards entirely unintended consequences.

One hundred years ago President Woodrow Wilson tried to achieve such cooperation with his utopian League of Nations proposals.  Sadly, his negotiations during the Paris Peace Conference were allowed to be hijacked by parochial powers self interest put before the international prize.  Not everyone was around the table when the League of Nations started, thus sealing its fate.  The need for multi-lateral discussions is required now more than ever.  The question is, which international leader will have the vision, values, tools and abilities to provoke such peaceful dialogue.  Whoever does will win the ultimate prize- going down in history achieving what many have attempted, persevering peace and promoting cross border cooperation.

Neil McLennan is Senior Lecturer and Director of Leadership Programmes at University of Aberdeen. He recently shared cooperative leadership modelling at the NGO Forum for Peace in East Asia International Conference.  Neil wishes to thank Sungho Kang of South Korea for faciltiating the conference and developing others thinking on the region's issues but also peaceful solutions through cooperative dialogue, discussion and deliberate peacemaking. 

Neil DR McLennan  FRSA, FSA Scot, MYAS OSS 大将軍

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